POPULATION EXPLOSION IN NIGERIA BY 2050: OVERWHELMING EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Thabani Nyoni
Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe
Harare, Zimbabwe


Abstract

Employing annual time series data, I analyze total population growth dynamics in Nigeria over the period 1960 – 2017 using the ARIMA approach.Based on both Theil’s U (a crucial forecast evaluation statistic) and the AIC (a well known model selection criteria); the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model. Diagnostic tests show that our chosen optimal model is stable.The results of this study indicate that annual total population in Nigeria is likely to continue rising sharply. The policy implications emanating from this study are basically 2 – fold and are envisioned to help policy makers in controlling population growth in Nigeria.

Key words: ARIMA, Forecasting, Nigeria, Population

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