Thabani
Nyoni
Department
of Economics, University of Zimbabwe
Harare,
Zimbabwe
Abstract
Employing annual time
series data, I analyze total population growth dynamics in Nigeria over the
period 1960 – 2017 using the ARIMA approach.Based on both Theil’s U (a crucial
forecast evaluation statistic) and the AIC (a well known model selection
criteria); the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model. Diagnostic tests show
that our chosen optimal model is stable.The results of this study indicate that
annual total population in Nigeria is likely to continue rising sharply. The
policy implications emanating from this study are basically 2 – fold and are
envisioned to help policy makers in controlling population growth in Nigeria.
Key
words: ARIMA, Forecasting,
Nigeria, Population
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